Principles of futures thinking and foresight methodsLaajuus (2 cr)

Objective

The student:   - understands the scientific concept of the futures.   - knows what skills are needed in futures thinking and is able to describe what kind of methods may be used to study the futures of forest bioeconomy.   - can sketch how to apply the most common foresight methods for forest-related societal topics. 

Content

Concepts of futures, forecasting and foresight. Possible, plausible, probable, and preferable futures. Futures awareness and futures consciousness and their dimensions. Futures table, futures wheel, scenarios, Delphi, backcasting, and horizon scanning as futures methods.  

Materials

Hines A, Bengston DN, Dockry MJ, Cowart A. Setting up a horizon scanning system: A U.S. federal agency example. World Futures Review. 2018;10(2):136–151.   Online videos, other online study material. 

Further information

Campus: Joensuu

Execution methods

Lecture (5%), facilitated exercise (10%), online videos (20%), readings (25%), essay (40%). Grading scale 0-5

Accomplishment methods

An introductory lecture at the beginning of the course. Obligatory participation in a facilitated scenario exercise. Individual work: watching online videos, reading literature, and writing one essay, which is evaluated for the grade. Evaluation criteria: conceptual clarity, analytical and critical pondering.